More Frederick County, Maryland Election Predictions

The negative television attack ad presently being aired by the O’Connor campaign against Scott Rolle is a good indicator the contest for Circuit Court Judge promises to be close.

Politics punctuates this nonpartisan race between former Frederick County state’s attorney Republican Scott Rolle who is challenging the appointment by Maryland Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley of sitting Judge Danny O’Connor, who is also a Democrat.

However, other than being turned off by this campaign ad, there is no compelling reason for voters to want to remove reasonable and well qualified Judge O’Connor from the bench. While Rolle will make it close, look to see Judge O’Connor win this race.

Two term Frederick County Republican Sheriff Chuck Jenkins will win for a third time against Democratic challenger Karl Bickel.  Bickel failed to receive enough signatures to in his attempt to run as an independent four years ago and this time ran as a Democrat.  Bickel has run a competitive campaign even without having raised any significant campaign funds.  It will be interesting to see if Jenkins maintains his 60% approval rating he received in his first two elections.

Republican Charles Smith will also remain as Frederick County state’s attorney.  He should also receive around 60% of the vote.  Democrat Teresa Bean provides a choice for voters.  But, look to see name recognition and voter registration propel Smith to an easy win.

Recent redistricting suggests the winners of the state delegate positions in district 3 and district 4 will likely mirror the voter registration advantage held by Democrats and Republicans in these districts.

Mills Custom Wood Floors

In district 3, where Democrats hold a voter registration, state senator Ron Young(D) will win reelection easily. Ron Young is by far the more qualified candidate over his Republican challenger Corey Stottlemeyer.

Democrats should win all three state delegate positions as well in district 3, with Karen Young and Carol Krimm prevailing over Republicans Paul Smith and Victoria Wilkins in district 3-a.  County Commissioner Paul Smith may make it interesting, but his remarks about women and their role in the home should ensure his defeat.  Republican candidate Victoria Wilkins is unlikely to be competitive in this election.

In district 3-b, Democrat Stephen Slater, who recently moved to the district should prevail over Republican William “Bill” Folden.  The Slater campaign raised significantly more money than the Folden campaign.  But look to see a well known Folden make this race closer than what it should be.

Over in district 4, where voters elect three delegates, Republican Michael Hough, who crushed former state senate minority leader David Brinkley in the primary, will defeat Democrat Dan Rupli.  Rupli is by far, the candidate best suited to serve in Annapolis and has conducted a good campaign.  But, he will not be able to overcome the voter registration advantage enjoyed by Republicans in this district.

Incumbent Republican state delegates Kathy Afzali and Kelly Schulz will breeze to reelection in district 4-a as Democrats failed to field enough candidates to offer them an opponent.

The race for the final state delegate position in the district however promises to be close between Democrat Gene Stanton and Republican David Vogt III.  Stanton has run an outstanding campaign and will make an excellent addition to the state house in Annapolis.  The odds favor the Republican in this race.  But, Vogt has done nothing in this campaign and does not deserve a seat in Annapolis. So, don’t count out Stanton.

Stay tuned.

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